Not all congressional traders are created equal. Some file hundreds of trades and barely keep pace with the index. Others make a handful of high-conviction moves that crush the market. Here's what the data shows about 2025 congressional portfolio performance.
The Methodology
STOCK Act disclosures show ranges, not exact amounts — so precise returns are impossible to calculate. What researchers can do is model performance using midpoint estimates for each disclosed range, track which stocks were bought and sold, and apply the actual market prices on the disclosure dates. Several independent research teams have done exactly this.
Jefferson Shreve — Estimated 31.4% Return
The Indiana Republican led all members in both trading volume ($150.9M) and estimated return (31.4%) for the period tracked through early 2026. His concentrated selling at key market peaks and reinvestment into growth positions drove the outperformance. See his full trade history.
Nancy Pelosi — Consistent Outperformer
Pelosi's household portfolio has beaten the S&P 500 in multiple consecutive years, driven by large concentrated positions in Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet — often through deep in-the-money call options. Her 2025 returns continued this pattern despite a volatile tech environment. See her full trade history.
Ro Khanna — Volume Without Alpha
Khanna's 4,284 trades in 2025 represent extraordinary activity, but research suggests high-frequency congressional trading doesn't consistently beat the market. His diversified approach across tech, consumer, and healthcare names produced returns roughly in line with a broad index — impressive given the volume, but not the edge some investors seek. See his full trade history.
The Honest Truth About Copying Congress
Academic research is mixed. A 2004 study found senators beat the market by 12% annually in the 1990s. A 2022 Dartmouth study found "no evidence of stock-picking prowess" in more recent data. The 45-day disclosure delay is the biggest practical obstacle — by the time you see a trade, prices have usually already moved.
The real value of tracking congressional trades is as a sentiment signal and sector indicator — not as a direct copy-trade strategy. Track all active congressional traders at Congressional Trades.